Eight Japanese Giants Set Up A 2nm Chip Company
TSMC and Samsung launched 7nm in 2019. However, only a series of digital improvements such as 6nm, 5nm, 4nm and 3nm were seen, but the yield after 5nm was difficult to improve. In addition, the 3nm structure of TSMC adopted GAA, so TSMC became desperate in the 3nm generation and moved to 2nm.
Even the TSMC, which has the most advanced technology, used to replace it every two years, but it took two and a half years for the 3nm device to start up as planned, and finally reached the critical stage of mass production in the second half of 2022. 2 Nanogenerational transistors, which use the new GAA, may take two and a half to three years to enter mass production. Therefore, the earliest time for mass production of 2 nanometers is 2025 or even 2026.
If Japan "starts mass production of 2nm from 2025," it is likely to be earlier than TSMC! From the current 45 nanometers, spanning nine generations, mass production of 2 nanometers earlier than TSMC, what a whimsical solution!
Not just "the gap between high school students and college students"
In the Nikkei s "Deep Insight" on August 3, 2022, Common Data s Junshi Nakayama compared the 2-nanometer difficulty level to "Planners are middle school students, FinFET is high school students, and GAA is college students."
But I think 2 nanometers is more difficult than that. But the occasional prodigy goes straight from high school to college, but for semiconductors, it's impossible to go from 45 nanometers to 2 nanometers, spanning nine generations.
As for the development of semiconductor miniaturization, each generation progress 70%, its difficulty increases exponentially. Twenty years ago, I participated in the R&D and mass production of 4M, 16M, 64M, and 256M DRAM. Research and development is a tightrope walk in every generation. For example, the transition from 64M to 256M was so difficult that the question "Can't 256M be done?" was asked. That's the idea. Semiconductor miniaturization is really difficult to develop.
Thus, the following analogy answers the question "what exactly is 2 nanometers from the point of view of 45 nanometers?" Young Japanese Little League baseball players usually have the following dream: "In the future, to become a Major League Baseball player, like Otani Shio Hei to throw double!" Of course, it's good for teenage baseball players to have dreams. But one teenage player wants to "be in the Major leagues in three years and play double!" Of course this is unrealistic. You might say to him, First, I will play for the Nippon Professional Baseball Team, and then I will play for the American Major League.
The difference between 45 nanometers and two nanometers is like the difference between a youth baseball player and a Major League Baseball player, Asohei Otani.
