Optical films are in high demand
Optical filmscan be divided into two categories: display optical film and non-display optical film. The display like optical film includes reflective film, anti-reflection film, filter film, polarization film, etc., the non-display like optical film includes release film and polarizing film, etc. Display type polyester film is mainly used in liquid crystal panel and other fields. With the continuous technological upgrading, the iterative update frequency of liquid crystal TV, computer, mobile phone and other consumer electronic products is accelerated, which drives the improvement of the optical film market demand. A release film is a film with a separable surface. Release film is mainly composed of substrate, coating and release layer. In the production of PET, PE, PP, OPP and other substrate surface treatment, including coating silicon release agent, fluoride release agent, so that it has a very light and stable release force for different organic pressure-sensitive adhesives.
The downstream of release film is widely used. The upstream of the release film is raw materials such as substrate and release agent, and the downstream application field is very wide. The release film can be used as a support for the production and processing of flexible printed circuit boards (FPC), polarizing film for panel industry, multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) and laminated built-in antennas. With the technological upgrading of downstream industries, the market demand continues to expand.
China's release film production capacity is concentrated in the low-end, high-end release film dependent on imports. The technical barrier of release film is high, most of domestic film manufacturers still stay in the low and middle stage. The international high-end market is dominated by Japanese manufacturers. 3M Company of the United States, Mitsui Chemical, Toray, Toyo Textile, Tairen, Mitsubishi Chemical and SKC of South Korea occupy the mainstream high-end market. The main standards for the quality of the zone separation film are cleanliness, flatness, antistatic property, tolerance, etc. The release film performance of overseas enterprises is more superior, which is used in high-end fields such as optical, electronic die-cutting display panel production capacity increases, and the liquid crystal panel industry is booming, driving the demand for release film for polarizer. As South Korean manufacturers Samsung and LG continue to shut down LCD production lines, high-generation line production capacity in mainland China continues to be released. According to DSCC data, LCD production capacity in mainland China accounts for more than half of the world in 2020, and it is expected that China will account for 67% in 2022. We refer to the DSCC's forecast data on global panel shipment, and calculate the average price of release film at 7 yuan/square meter according to the 1:1 correspondence between release film and polarizer. It is predicted that the capacity utilization rate will be 95%, and the LCD capacity in the panel will be 95% of the total panel capacity. It is predicted that the global market space will be 6.7 billion Yuan in 2025.
MLCC is made of ceramic diaphragm misaligned stacking and sintering. The release film is used in the flow process of MLCC production. MLCC is composed of ceramic dielectric films with printed electrodes (inner electrodes) superimitated in a dislocated way. After one-time high-temperature sintering, a ceramic chip is formed, and then a metal layer (outer electrodes) is sealed at both ends of the chip to form a structure similar to a single stone. MLCCS typically stack 300-1000 layers of ceramic media. In the process of MLCC preparation, the flow step is to mix ceramic powder, binder and solvent and grind it into ceramic slurry. Then, through the casting mouth of the flow machine, it is coated on the winding MLCC release film to form a uniform thin layer of slurry. After the solvent is volatilized and dried, the ceramic membrane can be obtained, and its thickness is generally about 10-30mm. Multilayer dielectric film lamination printing requires stacking hundreds to thousands of layers on a 1mm ceramic film.
MLCC high boom, industry giants have expanded production. MLCC has a wide range of downstream applications, including consumer electronics, automotive, communications and industrial applications. MLCC release film is used to carry the clay layer in the process of component production during flow coating. MLCC usually requires 300-1000 layers of ceramic media to be stacked, and the formation of each layer requires a release film. Under the high economic degree of MLCC, domestic and foreign enterprises increase production expansion plans, and the new production capacity will be put into operation during 2022-2024. Murata, Samsung Electric and other global MLCC leading enterprises are still far ahead in production capacity. In the process of development, they also adjust their product structure and gradually abandon the generic MLCC products. Domestic enterprises in the expansion of production will also be small size, high capacity and other high-end products as the direction.
The complexity of smart phones and the promotion of production and sales of new energy vehicles increase the demand for MLCC. With the increasing complexity of smartphone functions, more passive components are needed to ensure the normal operation of the phone. In the case of the iPhone, MLCC usage has increased dramatically during the transition to the next generation. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have higher electronic requirements. According to the Torch Electronic convertible bond prospectus, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the MLCC used by plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles has been significantly increased.
We estimate that the global MLCC release membrane market size is 33.8 billion yuan in 2025. In 2022, due to the weak demand for consumer electronics and the impact of repeated local epidemics on the economy, Set Group Consulting expects that MLCC demand for consumer regulations will continue to be weak in the second half of 2022, and the overall shipments of the top ten MLCC suppliers will decline year-on-year. Under the condition that the impact of repeated local epidemics is weakened and the demand for new energy vehicles is boosted, we assume that MLCC shipments will remain flat year-on-year in 2022, and the CAGR of shipments is expected to be 2% from 2023-2025. We assume that an average single MLCC is stacked with 400 layers, with a single layer of 5 square millimeters, and the production of single-layer MLCC consumes approximately the same release film area as the MLCC area. According to the 2018-2020 annual report of Jiemei Technology, we calculated that the price of released film products is 1.3 yuan/square meter. Considering the miniaturization, high capacity and high-end use of MLCC, the number of stacked layers may increase, assuming that the average price of released film for MLCC is 3 yuan/square meter. Based on this, we forecast that the global MLCC release film demand will reach 10.4 billion square meters in 2022, and the market size will reach 31.2 billion yuan, and the market size will reach 33.8 billion Yuan in 2025.
